¿Chocolate o riqueza? Replicación transnacional de la correlación entre consumo de chocolate y Premios Nobel con datos actualizados (1901–2025), inclusión de América Latina y modelos de conteo con exceso de ceros
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67321/gxffd102Palabras clave:
falacia ecológica, replicación, regresión binomial negativa inflada por ceros, Premios Nobel, América LatinaResumen
La correlación entre consumo per cápita de chocolate y laureados Nobel por 10 millones de habitantes (r = 0.791) es un ejemplo clásico de falacia ecológica, rara vez replicado con datos armonizados y modelos para conteos con exceso de ceros. Se buscó replicarla y ampliarla incorporando a América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) y controles macroeconómicos históricos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico, retrospectivo y transnacional con 129 países (19 de ALC) y 991 premios individuales (1901–2025), atribuidos por país de nacimiento y de afiliación. La exposición fue el cacao disponible para consumo (FAOSTAT); los controles, el PIB per cápita de 1960–2022, el gasto en I+D, la matrícula terciaria y las publicaciones científicas. El análisis avanzó de correlaciones simples y parciales a modelos de Poisson, binomial negativa (BN), inflados por ceros (ZIP, ZINB) y hurdle. En los 23 países originales, la correlación no se reprodujo con la medida armonizada (r = 0.19; p = 0.37). En la muestra ampliada, la correlación cruda (r = 0.37; p < 0.001) desapareció al ajustar por PIB (r parcial = 0.10; p = 0.24). En los modelos BN y ZINB ajustados, la razón de tasas de incidencia del chocolate osciló entre 1.09 y 1.15, con intervalos que incluyeron la unidad; el PIB y la I+D fueron predictores robustos. La leche, usada como control de falsificación, mostró una asociación residual mayor que la del chocolate. La riqueza y la capacidad científica, y no el chocolate, explican la distribución de los Premios Nobel
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