Can artificial intelligence replace professions? A quantitative systematic review of the evidence on occupational exposure, displacement and augmentation (2016–2026)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67321/7d3ygr02Keywords:
inteligencia artificial generativa, automatización, exposición ocupacional, mercado laboral, sustitución del empleo, revisión sistemáticaAbstract
Introduction: the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed the debate on whether entire professions will be replaced by algorithmic systems. Objective: to quantify, from evidence published between 2016 and 2026, the expected and observed magnitude of labour substitution by AI and to identify the professions most and least likely to be replaced. Methods: systematic review following PRISMA 2020. 20 queries were run on an academic search engine and institutional repositories (ILO, IMF, OECD, World Bank, NBER, SSRN, arXiv), complemented by citation searching. Of 211 records, 34 quantitative studies were included (occupational exposure, observed usage, causal effects, experiments and projections), and their quality was rated on five criteria. Results: 79.4% of studies were published after the release of ChatGPT. Estimates of employment at high risk of full substitution fell from a median of 14% (range 9–47%) in pre-generative, occupation-based models to 4.5% (0.4–8%) in 2023–2025 task-based models, whereas partial exposure reaches 25% of global employment (ILO) or 40% (IMF), and 26–27% in Ecuador. Observed effects are negative but concentrated (median −14%): freelance postings for writing and coding (−21%) and employment of 22–25-year-olds in exposed occupations (−13% to −19%), with no aggregate effects on earnings or hours. Experiments show productivity gains (median +25.1%). The most frequently flagged professions were programmers, clerks, telemarketers, writers and accountants; the least exposed were manual trades and direct care. Conclusions: AI substitutes tasks rather than professions; full substitution is unlikely in the medium term for most occupations, but displacement is already measurable in entry-level positions and standardised cognitive work.
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