¿Chocolate o riqueza? Replicación transnacional de la correlación entre consumo de chocolate y Premios Nobel con datos actualizados (1901–2025), inclusión de América Latina y modelos de conteo con exceso de ceros

Samantha Lisseth Romero Ruiz

doi:10.67321/gxffd102

Authors

Samantha Lisseth Romero Ruiz Universidad Estatal Amazónica Author https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3570-4809

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.67321/gxffd102

Keywords:

ecological fallacy, replication, zero-inflated negative binomial regression, Nobel Prize, Latin America

Abstract

The correlation between per capita chocolate consumption and Nobel laureates per 10 million inhabitants (r = 0.791) became a textbook example of the ecological fallacy, yet it has rarely been replicated with harmonized data, unselected samples and models suited to zero-heavy counts. We aimed to replicate and extend that finding by including Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and historically lagged macroeconomic controls. We conducted an ecological, retrospective, cross-national study of 129 countries (19 in LAC) and 991 individual prizes awarded between 1901 and 2025, attributed by country of birth and of affiliation. Exposure was cocoa available for consumption (FAOSTAT); controls were mean GDP per capita for 1960–2022, R&D expenditure, tertiary enrollment and scientific output. The analysis moved from simple and partial correlations to Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson and NB (ZIP, ZINB) and hurdle models. In Messerli's 23 countries the correlation was not reproduced with the harmonized measure (r = 0.19; p = 0.37). In the extended sample, the crude correlation (r = 0.37; p < 0.001) vanished after adjustment for GDP (partial r = 0.10; p = 0.24). In adjusted NB and ZINB models, the incidence rate ratio for chocolate ranged from 1.09 to 1.15 with intervals including one, whereas GDP and R&D were robust predictors. Milk consumption, used as a falsification control, showed a stronger residual association than chocolate. Wealth and scientific capacity, not chocolate, explain the distribution of Nobel Prizes.

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